03/09/2025

This morning, Willem van der Pijl and colleagues gave a presentation entitled Shrimp trade statistics: status and future prospects. I have attached the presentation slides at the bottom of this page for you to download. See also the Undercurrent News item (free to read) here.

In summary:

• Ecuador leads growth, though prices are falling.
• India is flat but diversifying with tilapia and value-added.
• Vietnam rebounds strongly with diversified markets.
• Indonesia shows recovery but remains US-dependent.
• Imports: US volatile (tariff-driven), EU surging, China stagnating, Japan steady/slightly down.

Exports

Global Export Trends

• 2024: Stagnant growth, some declines in key markets.
• 2025 H1: Strong rebound, especially from Ecuador and Vietnam.

Ecuador

• 2023: Strong growth (+24% to +9% YoY per quarter).
• 2024: Mixed performance; overall stagnation (H2 weak).
• 2025 H1: Strong rebound (+20% Q1, +14% Q2), record volumes (392,740 MT in Q2; >150,000 MT in May).
• Export growth continues but prices are dropping.
• Markets:
  • China flat, Europe and “other Asia” absorbing growth.
  • Stronger sales to reprocessors (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Sri Lanka).
  • Within Europe, growth led by France, UK, Spain, Belgium.

India

• 2024: Small annual growth (+3%).
• 2025 H1: Stable (+0% Q1, +6% Q2).
• Monthly growth volatile; overall trend stagnating.
• Species/product split:
  • Raw vannamei stable.
  • Raw monodon peaked in 2023, now declining.
  • Value-added products growing strongly (+37% H1 2025).
• Markets: US slightly recovered; EU uncertain due to antibiotic regulations.
• Tilapia exports growing fast (potentially 20,000 MT in 2025).

Vietnam

• 2024: Recovery (+10%).
• 2025 H1: Strong (+14% YoY).
• Record export levels possible if trend continues.
• Balanced product growth: vannamei shrimp recovering, black tiger shrimp stable, “other shrimp” booming (+124%).
• Markets: Highly diversified (50% within Asia/Oceania).

Indonesia

• 2023–2024: Declines, then mild recovery in H2 2024.
• 2025 H1: Strong growth (+10% Q1, +16% Q2). First time since 2022 exceeding 20,000 MT/month.
• Still highly dependent on US market.

Imports

Global Imports

• Stable around 3.5 million MT since 2022.
• Expected growth in 2025.

USA

• 2024 H2: Shrinking imports.
• 2025 H1: Surge (+13% Q1, +24% Q2) due to tariff-driven frontloading.
• Likely <800,000 MT for 2025 full year.
• Shift in product mix: peeled and cooked imports rising, shell-on declining.
• Suppliers: all major exporters gained in H1 2025 due to frontloading.

China

• 2023: Imports peaked then dropped.
• 2024–2025: Stabilized ~900,000 MT, slightly declining.
• Prices weak, only minor recovery in Q2 2025.
• Ecuador exports falling, India flat, small suppliers mixed (some recoveries).

EU-27

• 2023–2024: Recovery trend.
• 2025 H1: Strong surge (+16% Q1, +24% Q2). Raw Penaeus imports may near 400,000 MT in 2025.
• Strongest growth from Ecuador and Asian suppliers (Vietnam, India, Indonesia).
• Average prices declining despite higher volumes.
• Value-added imports also rising sharply (+26–29% in 2025 H1).

France

• Second-largest EU shrimp importer (Spain #1).
• 2025 H1: Direct imports up +26% YoY.
• Growth mainly from Ecuador replacing Venezuela.

Japan

• Imports stable long term (~300,000 MT ceiling), slightly declining.
• 2025 H1: Mixed performance (flat Q1, +13% Q2).
• Ecuador overtook Thailand as key supplier.

Other Exporters

• China: +19% YoY growth.
• Thailand: Flat.
• Peru: -13%.
• Venezuela, Honduras, Bangladesh small volumes.

Other Importers

• South Korea: +6%.
• UK: +4%.
• Canada: +25%.